HurricaneDij39

*Projected records in parenthesis.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74) - Only the Cardinals can lose Albert Pujols and still be the favorites in their division.  Still, Beltran and Berkman?  What is this, the 2004 Astros?  Yeah, their window of opportunity may not be open too much longer.  Their pitching is key to sustained success with Adam Wainwright coming back.
   
2. Cincinnati Reds (85-77) - Mat Latos bolsters their rotation and Sean Marshall bolsters their bullpen, though I still question if Joey Votto has enough protection in that lineup.
   
3. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) - The starting pitching remains solid but their offense has been depleted.  As much as I love Aramis Ramirez, he can't replace Prince Fielder.  This isn't 2006.  Yuneisky Betancourt could also prove to be a bigger loss than they realize.  Milwaukee is going with Alex Gonzalez at shortstop in 2012, who is an upgrade over Betancourt defensively but a zero offensively.  Though at his age, you have to wonder how much longer he'll be a plus defensively.  Most importantly, how will Ryan Braun respond to his rather adventurous offseason?
   
4. Chicago Cubs (75-87) - The last two years, I made the mistake of predicting my team to finish second.  I won't make that same mistake this year, as this team is definitely rebuilding.  If nothing else, the starting rotation can't possibly be worse than it was last year, when Rodrigo Lopez (who?) had the second-best ERA on the staff.  Dale Sveum was also an interesting hire.  As a player in the late 80's, he suffered a career-threatening leg injury only to stick around for another ten years as a bench player.  In other words, he won't quit on the team like Lou Pinella did his last two years here.
   
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90) - They overachieved during the first half of 2011 and faded quickly after the All-Star break.  Youngsters Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez need to step up.
   
6. Houston Astros (66-96) - The rotation, namely Brett Myers and J.A. Happ, returned to earth in 2011, and that spelled disaster for them condering they had one of the N.L.'s worst offenses.  Meanwhile, Carlos Lee continues to drive in runs even at his advanced age and J.D. Martinez is a good-looking young hitter.

If I wrote up the Cubs' lineup card (if I was Dale Sveum), the batting order would look like this, along with my projected 2012 stats:

1. RF David DeJesus (.268, 12 HR, 53 RBI, .342 OBP)
2. 2B *Orlando Hudson (.272, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 15 steals)
3. SS Starlin Castro (.295, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 16 steals)
4. 1B Bryan LaHair (.274, 20 HR, 72 RBI)
5. CF Marlon Byrd (.283, 11 HR, 61 RBI)
6. LF Alfonso Soriano (.270, 22 HR, 80 RBI)
7. 3B Ian Stewart (.239, 20 HR, 55 RBI)
8. C Geovany Soto (.246, 15 HR, 46 RBI)
9. Pitcher's spot

*My proposed trade sending lefty reliever John Gaub to San Diego for Orlando Hudson.  Rumors were swirling earlier during the offseason that the Padres were looking to move Hudson and the final year of his contract.  Won't happen, but if you're the Cubs it should.  Even after yet another hot spring, Darwin Barney is still a natural utilityman to me, and he'll eventually be moved out of the starting second base role eventually.

Previously

• A.L. Central (4/3)
• A.L. West (3/31)

*Projected records in parenthesis.

1)  Detroit Tigers (92-70) - Even without Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder + Miguel Cabrera + Justin Verlander = instant favorites in the division, and I don't believe anyone finishes fewer than ten games of them.  My only concern here is defense.  Can Miggy still play 3B?

2)  Cleveland Indians (82-80) - Full seasons from Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Kipnis will do wonders for this up-and-coming team, though at this point, you have to wonder if this team would be better off without injury-prone veterans Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner.  Bobby Abreu would have helped their outfield/DH situation.  Hopefully they can re-open trade talks.  Abreu may have lost a step, but he can still play.

3)  Kansas City Royals (81-81) - They've always had good hitting prospects, and now they've added a potential ace in Jonathan Sanchez, if only he can limit his walks.  Obviously they hope the 2010 version of Sanchez shows up as opposed to the 2011 one.

4)  Chicago White Sox (75-87) - Without any coaching experience to speak of, new manager Robin Ventura has been thrown right into the fire.  I can't help but root for the guy, but this is a .500 team at best if everything goes right.  If nothing else, Ventura should provide a calming influence over Ozzie Guillen.  Extending John Danks was a good move for them.  He's not a true ace, but Danks is a solid innings-eating lefty who should emerge as the leader of this staff.  They need Adam Dunn to rebound, but how do you bounce back from a season like that?  Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham also need to produce more than they did last year in order for this team to make any sort of noise.

5)  Minnesota Twins (70-92) - Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau both missed significant time due to injuries in 2011, and now they've lost Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Delmon Young.  They've added Josh Willingham, but considering his advancing age and as his range continues to decline, I don't think it was a wise move to sign him as an outfielder in that spacious ballpark.  I would have kept one of the above three.  Unless an iffy rotation produces (I like the Jason Marquis addition, by the way), I don't see the Twins being a factor in this division, even if Mauer and Morneau bounce back (Mauer more likely than Morneau). 

Previously
-A.L. West (3/31)

1)  Texas Rangers (93-69) - The Angels made all the headlines this offseason, but Texas is still the team to beat in this division until someone else proves otherwise.  Look for Elvis Andrus and Mitch Moreland to be the next Rangers to break out here in 2012.  The key question: Is Yu Darvish worthy of the hype or is just another Daisuke Matsuzaka? If he gives them #3 stuff in his first year I think Texas will be satisfied.

2)  Los Angeles Angels (89-73) - They made a big splash by signing Pujols and Weaver/Haren/Wilson is a top notch 1-2-3, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.  It takes time for new players to develop clubhouse chemistry.  We all remember how Miguel Cabrera's first season with the Tigers went.  For one, Pujols won't have as much protection with the Angels as he did in St. Louis.  2011 was the first time in his career he failed to drive in 100 runs, perhaps a sign of decline?  Second, there are some question marks at the back end of the rotation.  And it's easy to forget that C.J. Wilson is already 31 in spite of the fact that he only has two major league seasons of experience as a starter.  For those reasons, I was screaming for the Cubs not to sign him given his price tag. 

3)  Oakland Athletics (74-88) - Don't worry about the offseason losses of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey.  The A's always seem to find pitching.  Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey, for instance, pitched well in their brief stints in the rotation last year, while Tom Milone, one of the guys acquired in the Gio trade, had an insane K/BB with the Nationals' AAA Syracuse team last year.  The offense remains anemic even after bringing back speedster Coco Crisp.  We'll see what kind of impact Yoenis Cespedes has on a team that lacks major league hitting talent.  They could have done without signing Manny Ramirez, though.  And Josh Reddick as an everyday player?  In that ballpark?  That might not work out too well.   

4)  Seattle Mariners (72-90) - It's not often a team trades away a young pitcher with ace potential in Michael Pineda.  They must be counting on Jesus Montero to be the answer to their offensive woes.  Ichiro's getting older, and I just don't see a great deal of upside with this group.

Denver gets - Jarrett Jack

New Orleans gets - Chris Andersen, Jordan Hamilton, and a 2013 1st round pick

From the Nuggets' perspective: Jarrett Jack is in the midst of a career year this year, though granted it's on a bad team, and it looks as if he has many good years ahead of him.  While he doesn't exactly ooze upside, he's a do-it-all guard that George Karl should take a liking to.  He'll also pass as a shooter more than the aging Andre Miller, who will be a free agent at season's end.  Birdman Andersen is slowly fading from Denver's rotation as the team looks for more scoring and to get a little bit younger in the frontcourt.

From the Hornets' perspective: Jack is going to be a free agent after the 2013 season and is unlikely to resign with the rebuilding Hornets.  You might as well get something for him, and this would be a solid haul in return.  In this deal, Birdman would be returning to his other former team.  While Birdman isn't the most talented guy, he will put forth a full effort and his presence would mean that the cash-strapped Hornets won't have to pay the extra money to re-sign lethargic veterans Carl Landry and Chris Kaman.  You get the sense that Landry's heart isn't into it playing for such a bad team, while Kaman's efforts have been questioned his whole career.  The rookie Hamilton, who has no place on a Denver team that has contender aspirations right now, could give New Orleans a needed scoring option off the bench.

...Better than ESPN's, if that's really saying much.

*Last year's ranking in parenthesis

1 )  Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks (5)

2 )  LeBron James, SF, Miami Heat (3) (Sorry, but I just can't rank him #1 after last year's finals performance)

3 )  Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls (16)

4 )  Dwight Howard, C, Orlando Magic (4)

5 )  Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat (2)

6 )  Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (1)

7 )  Kevin Durant, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder (7)

8 )  Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (8)

9 )  Amar'e Stoudemire, PF, New York Knicks (13)

10 )  Deron Williams, PG, New Jersey Nets (10)

11 )  Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (43)

12 )  Zach Randolph, PF, Memphis Grizzlies (27)

13 )  Carmelo Anthony, SF, New York Knicks (6)

14 )  LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers (31)

15 )  Pau Gasol, PF, Los Angeles Lakers (14)

16 )  Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston Celtics (19)

17 )  Steve Nash, PG, Phoenix Suns (9)

18 )  Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (NR)

19 )  Manu Ginobili, SG, San Antonio Spurs (24)

20 )  Paul Pierce, SF, Boston Celtics (20)

21 )  Kevin Garnett, PF, Boston Celtics (23)

22 )  Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs (26)

23 )  Joe Johnson, SG, Atlanta Hawks (17)

24 )  Luol Deng, SF, Chicago Bulls (NR) (Most underrated player in the league right now)

25 )  Danny Granger, SF, Indiana Pacers (18)

26 )  Monta Ellis, SG, Golden State Warriors (36)

27 )  Chris Bosh, PF, Miami Heat (15)

28 )  Tim Duncan, PF, San Antonio Spurs (12)

29 )  John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (37)

30 )  Andre Iguodala, SF, Philadelphia 76ers (32)

31 )  Carlos Boozer, PF, Chicago Bulls (22)

32 )  Kevin Love, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves (NR) (Shut up he's right where he should be)

33 )  Eric Gordon, SG, New Orleans Hornets (NR)

34 )  Josh Smith, PF, Atlanta Hawks (44)

35 )  Andrew Bogut, C, Milwaukee Bucks (34)

36 )  Stephen Jackson, SF, Milwaukee Bucks (29)

37 )  Paul Millsap, PF, Utah Jazz (NR)

38 )  David Lee, PF, Golden State Warriors (35)

39 )  Jason Terry, SG Dallas Mavericks (NR)

40 )  Rudy Gay, SF, Memphis (46)

41 )  Gerald Wallace, SF, Portland Trail Blazers (25)

42 )  Tyreke Evans, SG, Sacramento Kings (30)

43 )  Brandon Jennings, PG, Milwaukee Bucks (47)

44 )  Ty Lawson, PG, Denver Nuggets (NR)

45 )  Kevin Martin, SG, Houston Rockets (48)

46 )  David West, PF, Indiana Pacers (28)

47 )  Ray Allen, SG, Boston Celtics (39)

48 )  Joakim Noah, C, Chicago Bulls (NR)

49 )  Al Horford, C, Atlanta Hawks (NR)

50 )  Jameer Nelson, PG, Orlando Magic (NR)

Honorable mention - Andrea Bargnani, Elton Brand, Jrue Holiday, Jason Richardson, Corey Maggette, Lamar Odom, Shawn Marion, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Nene, Al Jefferson, Andrew Bynum

Dropped from last year's list - Brandon Roy, Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Aaron Brooks, Al Jefferson, Andrew Bynum, Shawn Marion

The lone NBA franchise without a Playoff win to its record (they got swept by Orlando in their lone Playoff appearance in 2010), the Bobcats are clearly rebuilding having dealt both Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace.  It will be up to new addition Corey Maggette to provide a veteran presence in a youth movement that so far includes Kemba Walker (my pick for Rookie of the Year), Gerald Henderson, and Bismack Biyombo.  A well-traveled veteran, Maggette, 32, has long had a reputation of being a selfish scorer and is still looking to shake his loser label.  Even though he had a down year statisically last year in Milwaukee, I thought Maggette played some of the most meaningfull basketball of his career in 2010-11.  His attacking style had a positive effect on a jump-shooting Bucks team, as the team clearly played their best basketball when he was starting.  However, Maggette is not a Scott Skiles-type of player and was a victim of Skiles' incosistent rotations.  Maggette averaged 12.0 points and 3.6 rebounds per game overall last season.

Can Corey Maggette establish leadership on a young Charlotte team?  If he can help Charlotte at least challenge for a Playoff spot, I'd say he would definitely be considered a worthwhile aquisition.  Having used a mid-round pick on him in both of my fantasy leagues, I am expecting Maggette to deliver.

Analyzing the rest of the Bobcats' roster:

D.J. Augustin returns to his 2010 role as backup PG.  He lacks the size and athleticism to be a full-time starter... Athletic shot-blocker Tyrus Thomas should start at PF, though it doesn't look as if he'll live up to the potential that got him selected fourth overall in the 2006 draft... Boris Diaw is the same player he was two years ago.  He's just a very weird talent.  He doesn't have the first step to play SF, and he doesn't score enough to match up at PF, but he's got the lateral quickness to defend any position on the court.  He'd be a mediocre bench player on a contender, but the Bobcats are still a better team with Diaw than without him... Free agent acquisition Reggie Williams gives them the shooter they needed, but he'll miss the first couple of months with a knee injury... Matt Carroll saw some minutes last year as a shooter, but he's just playing out the string of a six-year deal he originally signed with the Cats back in 2007.  He left for Dallas a few years ago and came back in 2010... Big man DeSagana Diop will provide defense and an extra six fouls off the bench assuming he's recovered from the ruptured achilles that ended his season last year... Upon his arrival in a mid-season trade from Oklahoma City, D.J. White showed upside as a hard-working big man who can knock down the mid-range shot... After a brief tryout in New York, Derrick Brown is back to provide depth at both forward positions... Veteran Eduardo Najera was squeezed for minutes in his first year with the Bobcats, but he could see more minutes as a backup center option with Kwame Brown gone... Charlotte recently traded for B.J. Mullens to provide depth at the center position, but he sucks...

Projected 2011-12 record: 26-40, 11th in East

Point Guard:

• Aaron Brooks, Phoenix Suns (restricted) - Signed in China
• J.J. Barea, Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted) - Signed with Minnesota
• Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat (restricted) - Re-signed
• Rodney Stuckey, Detroit Pistons (restricted) - Re-signed
• Mike Bibby, Miami Heat (unrestricted) - Signed with New York
• Delonte West, Boston Celtics (unrestricted) - Signed with Dallas
• Shannon Brown, Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted) - Signed with Phoenix
• Earl Watson, Utah Jazz (unrestricted) - Re-signed

Shooting Guard:

• Jason Richardson, Orlando Magic (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• Jamal Crawford, Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted) - Signed with Portland
• Vince Carter, Phoenix Suns (unrestricted) - Signed with Dallas
• Arron Afflalo, Denver Nuggets (restricted) - Re-signed
• Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings (restricted) - Re-signed
• Nick Young, Washington Wizards (restricted) - Re-signed
• J.R. Smith, Denver Nuggets (unrestricted) - Signed in China
• DeShawn Stevenson, Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted)
• Tracy McGrady, Detroit Pistons (unrestricted) - Signed with Atlanta
• Marco Belinelli, New Orleans Hornets (restricted) - Re-signed
• Willie Green, New Orleans Hornets (unrestricted) - Signed with Atlanta
• Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted)
• Anthony Parker, Cleveland Cavaliers (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• Daequan Cook, Oklahoma City Thunder (restricted) - Re-signed

Small Forward:

• Jeff Green, Boston Celtics (restricted) - Re-signed
  
• Thaddeus Young, Phildelphia 76ers (restricted) - Re-signed
• Tayshaun Prince, Detroit Pistons (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• Caron Butler, Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted) - Signed with the Clippers
• Andrei Kirilenko, Utah Jazz (unrestricted)
• Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets (restricted) - Signed in China
  
• Grant Hill, Phoenix Suns (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• L.R. Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee Bucks (restricted) - Re-signed
• Shane Battier, Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted) - Signed with Miami
  
• Peja Stojakovic, Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted) - Retired
• Sonny Weems, Toronto Raptors (restricted)
• Mike Dunleavy, Indiana Pacers (unrestricted) - Signed with Milwaukee
• Chris-Douglas-Roberts, Milwaukee Bucks (restricted) - Signed in Italy
• Al Thornton, Golden State Warriors (unrestricted)
• Josh Howard, Washington Wizards (unrestricted) - Signed with Utah

Power Forward:

• David West, New Orleans Hornets (unrestricted) - Signed with the Pacers
• Carl Landry, New Orleans Hornets (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• Kris Humphries, New Jersey Nets (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• Kenyon Martin, Denver Nuggets (unrestricted) - Signed in China
  
• Glen "Big Baby" Davis, Boston Celtics (unrestricted) - Signed and traded to Orlando
• Josh McRoberts, Indiana Pacers (unrestricted) - Signed with the Lakers
• Reggie Evans, Toronto Raptors (unrestricted) - Signed with the Clippers
• Darius Songaila, Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted) - Signed in Turkey
  
• Yi Jianlian, Washington Wizards (unrestricted)
• Leon Powe, Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted)
• Brandan Wright, New Jersey Nets (unrestricted) - Signed with Dallas
• Juwan Howard, Miami Heat (unrestricted) - Re-signed

Center:

• Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies (restricted) - Re-signed
• Nene, Denver Nuggets (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted) - Signed and traded to New York
• Samuel Dalembert, Sacramento Kings (unrestricted) - Signed with Houston
• DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers (restricted) - Re-signed
• Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers (restricted) - Re-signed
• Spencer Hawes, Philadelphia 76ers (restricted) - Re-signed
• Chuck Hayes, Houston Rockets (unrestricted) - Signed with Sacramento
• Kwame Brown, Charlotte Bobcats (unrestricted) - Signed with Golden State
• Joel Przybilla, Charlotte Bobcats (unrestricted)
• Kurt Thomas, Chicago Bulls (unrestricted) - Signed with Portland
• Erick Dampier, Miami Heat (unrestricted)
• Jason Smith, New Orleans Hornets (unrestricted) - Re-signed
• Alexis Ajinca, Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)

Amnesty:

• Gilbert Arenas, SG, Orlando Magic
• Chauncey Billups, PG, New York Knicks - Claimed off waivers by the Clippers
• Charlie Bell, SG, Golden State Warriors
• James Posey, SF, Indiana Pacers
• Baron Davis, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers - Signed with New York
• Travis Outlaw, SF, New Jersey Nets - Claimed off waivers by Sacramento
• Brandon Roy, SG, Portland Trail Blazers - Retired

Bought Out:

• Richard Hamilton, SG, Detroit Pistons - Signed with the Bulls
• Mickael Pietrus, SG, Phoenix Suns - Signed with Boston

Cuts:

• Joey Graham, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
• Keith Bogans, SG, Chicago Bulls
• Andy Rautins, SG, New York Knicks
• Zabian Dowdell, SG, Phoenix Suns
• Manny Harris, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland gets: J.J. Redick, Daniel Orton

Orlando gets: Anderson Varejao, Luke Harangody

From the Cavs' perspective - Cleveland is clearly rebuilding, so it doesn't make a great deal of sense to hang on to the rest of the LeBron regime (notably Varejao and Boobie Gibson).  Varejao has three years left on a big contract and doesn't have much of a place in the Cavs' future.  Redick would give them a decent shooting guard option who doesn't have too asinine of a contract.  Plus, he's a fellow Dukee that will help ease the transition of #1 pick Kyrie Irving.

From the Magic's perspective - This trade would return Varejao to the team that originally drafted him.  Orlando is too much of a jump-shooting team and is still in need of frontcourt help for Dwight Howard.  Big Baby will provide inside scoring help for Dwight, while Varejao provides help on DEFENSE.  He would fill the shoes left by Marcin Gortat, who was traded last December.